Predicting PSG's Best Attacking Lineup For Next Season
How will Paris Saint-Germain replace the scoring productivity once Kylian Mbappé leaves this summer?
An Mbappé-less PSG
It will be a new era for Paris Saint-Germain next season. For the first time since the 2017-18 season, Kylian Mbappé will not be leading the Parisian attack if reports about his departure to Real Madrid this summer are to be believed.
For the past couple of months, Luis Enrique has been prepping his squad and the fanbase about an Mbappé-less PSG. The Frenchman was a substitute against Nantes and subbed off against Stade Rennais, AS Monaco, and most recently against rivals Olympique de Marseille. To his credit, Luis Enrique has been clear about the motives behind his decision.
“Soon, we will be playing without Kylian, so we need to get used to it. I am looking for the best options for the team.”
Mbappé’s impact on PSG goes well beyond the pitch, but let’s examine his goalscoring impact to determine what exactly PSG will have to replace next season.
Ethan from PSG Fan Club Boise has crunched the numbers and determined that PSG’s goalscoring rate when Mbappé is off the pitch is 1.90 per 90’ (521 minutes). When he’s on the pitch, it’s 2.63 per ‘90 (3,079) minutes. That means PSG will need to make up .73 goals per 90 next season. So, how do they do it?
It will take a collective effort from PSG’s attacking players to make up Mbappé’s productivity. Barring any surprise transfer moves this summer, Marco Asensio, Bradley Barcola, Ousmane Dembélé, Randal Kolo Muani, Gonçalo Ramos should all be available to Luis Enrique next season. There’s also a key addition that’s expected who could play a large role in replacing Mbappé.
The Return of Xavi Simons
Xavi Simons is currently on loan at RB Leipzig and is expected to return to PSG at the end of the season. The €80 million-rated attacking midfielder (per Transfermarkt) has scored seven goals and recorded 11 assists in the Bundesliga this season. Last season, he led the Eredivisie in scoring with PSV.
Leipzig will try to convince Simons to stay another season, but with a spot in the starting lineup waiting for him in the French capital, it seems unlikely. Along with the arrival of Simons, PSG may be in the transfer market for a marquee striker to replace Mbappé.
Potential New Arrivals
Napoli’s Victor Osimhen has been rumored to be a transfer target for PSG, as has AC Milan’s Rafael Leão. Benjamin Šeško, Simons’ teammate at Leipzig, is another potential transfer target. We’re still a month or so away until the summer transfer window opens, so let’s go with what we know and figure out what PSG’s ideal starting attack could look like next season.
Current Attacking Options
While Dembélé hasn’t exactly lit up the scoreboard this season, he is one of the best creators in Europe. Much like Angel Di Maria in years past, Dembélé has the ability to put pressure on opposing defenses and create scoring chances for his teammates. Health is always a concern with Dembélé, but if he can remain fit, he’ll likely be a regular starter for PSG next season on the right side of the attack.
Bradley Barcola has shown a lot of promise this season. His goal against Real Sociedad in the UEFA Champions League this season reminded me of Mbappé. He’s been somewhat inconsistent as of late, and he’s currently nursing a hamstring injury, but he has all the tools to be a special player. At 21 years old, I predict Barcola will have a strong preseason and take over the left side of the attack that Mbappé will vacate.
That brings us to the striker role. Ramos has had a better season than Kolo Muani, but both would likely be sent to the bench in favor of Osimhen, Leão, or Šeško should one of those players arrive this summer. If the decision came down to Ramos and Kolo Muani, I predict Luis Enrique would go with the goal poacher, Ramos. The Portugal international has mostly come off the bench this season, but still, in 22 Ligue 1 appearances, he’s scored seven goals, and I think that number will improve with more playing time and an elite creative player behind him, which PSG will have.
In the attacking midfielder role, the only choice is Simons. While Leipzig has played him on the left side of the midfield, I think Luis Enrique will bring him to the middle of the pitch and allow him to use his vision to feed Ramos and the two wing players. Simons will also have the freedom to get forward and create scoring opportunities for himself when afforded space.
Conclusion
Will an attack featuring Barcola, Dembélé, Ramos, and Simons be enough to replace Mbappé? Most would say no, but don’t underestimate this group. Without Mbappé, these players will have more opportunities. They will no longer be able to rely on Mbappé to create something out of nothing and could play as a cohesive unit instead of some of the disjointed play we’ve seen this season.
If PSG could use some of the savings from Mbappé being off the books to sign a marquee attacker who almost guarantees goals, I think it stands to reason that PSG will not skip a beat next season despite arguably the best player in the world moving on.